[Stationery wholesale agent] Unbalanced paper production capacity, hope to rebalance

by:Yourijiu     2021-08-18
Under the pressure of the release of production capacity, the decline in profitability per ton of paper and the supplementary increase of raw materials, it is recommended to pay attention to companies that have new production capacity contributions and the extension of the pulp and paper industry chain. In 2010, the paper industry will face two major shocks: certain negatives and uncertain positives: certain negatives (new capacity) will impact the industry's profitability. Major paper-making companies in 2009... Under the pressure of capacity release, declining profit per ton of paper, and supplementary increases in raw materials, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with new capacity contributions and the extension of the pulp and paper industry chain. In 2010, the paper industry will face two major shocks: certain negatives and uncertain positives: certain negatives (new capacity) will impact the industry's profitability. In 2009, major papermaking companies took advantage of the industry's weakness to achieve low-cost expansion. Since 2010, new capacity will be released one after another. The pulsed increase in supply relative to the steady growth of demand will likely trigger a phased imbalance of supply and demand and an increase in raw material prices. , Which in turn affects the profitability of some paper types. Uncertain benefits (increased demand and integration of supply stock) stationery wholesale agents determine the rebalancing process of the industry. The downstream demand of the paper industry relies on consumption and exports as the economy recovers, the international competitive advantage of China's paper products (310368, fund it) appears to drive export growth, and the national economic structural adjustment policy promotes the integration of supply and stock, which will drive the industry to develop in a direction that is beneficial to paper companies. , But the process is still uncertain. An empirical analysis of China's paper and paperboard consumption data from 1978 to 2007 and the United States from 1990 to 2007 shows that the demand for papermaking has a strong correlation with economic growth. The monthly analysis of the growth rate of my country's paper production and industrial added value also shows that the changes in papermaking and industrial added value have a high degree of correlation. Future paper price outlook: With the successive price increases of major paper grades, the company’s profit restoration has been successful. Stationery wholesale agency (gross profit margin rebounded to the historical average, there is still a certain gap in gross profit per ton), based on U.S. anti-dumping and new production capacity in 2010 Expectations that have been released one after another, coupled with the fact that paper companies have already made good profits, it is more difficult to actively raise prices, and may be driven by upstream raw materials to raise prices. Based on the overall improvement of China's economy, and the inventory of enterprises and midstream and downstream is at a normal level, the probability of a sharp drop is unlikely, and the price of paper will be mainly consolidating. Based on the judgment of supply and demand, the order of the paper grades' prosperity is: white cardboard, non-coated cultural paper, newsprint, cardboard paper and coated paper. The profitability of all paper grades has basically returned to the average level. It is expected that the net profit growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 will be more than 10%, and the annual profit growth rate will be further narrowed compared with the third quarter. The capacity expansion of major companies will provide support for subsequent growth, and the industry is expected to grow by more than 25% in 2010. At present, the PE of major listed paper companies in 2009 and 2010 after excluding outliers is 19 and 16 times, respectively. The PB of stationery wholesale agency in 2009 was 2.1 times. The relative market PE has risen to above the historical average level, and the relative PB is higher than the historical average. A 15% discount remains. Growth determines VS earnings downside expectations, and standard configuration is recommended. The paper industry has now completed the initial profit restoration and achieved the first static balance after the crisis. The subsequent impulsive increase in supply relative to the steady growth of demand may trigger a phased imbalance of supply and demand, and stationery wholesale agents may pose pressure to increase valuations. . In 2010, the paper industry will face the release of production capacity and the related quarter-on-quarter decline in earnings per ton of paper compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 and the pressure of supplementary increases in raw materials. It is expected to avoid the risk of damage to industry profits. In addition, China's paper industry is facing an integration opportunity, and some companies will therefore have thematic investment opportunities.
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